Went long on the bounce out of strong support in the 1.2820 area. Stop at 1.2775, target 1.3290.

Healthy looking correction underway after the euphoric run up to 1.33 has proven unsustainable. Pullback has almost reached the 61.8% Fibo at 1.2926. The hourly RSI trendline is hit, and should provide support, as well as the hourly EMA20, and the bottom of the price channel. A bounce from here is very likely, at least short term.

Alternatively, we may see a break below 1.2926, with next support coming in at 1.2842.

Action Plan: Plan on going long on bounce out of 1.2926, stop would be at 1.2775, initial target 1.33.

Support: 1.2926 Fibo62    1.2842 HSpptRsst    1.2812 Fibo50, HSppt

Resistance: 1.3150 HSpptRsst    1.33 H-10-29    1.3343 L-10-16

RSI: Hrly: supported by rising TL, Dly: bounced off rising TL, room for more upside

Hourly Chart:

Took profit at 1.2960 before Asia opens. Push through 1.30 is entirely possible and upside momentum persists, but the potential for a deeper retracement to 1.2830 or 1.2750 is mounting. Will not buy breakout through 1.30 since hourlies are near o/b.

Missed the long entry last night by a few points, and went long this morning at 1.2855, stop at 1.2710, target 1.2995. Fed decision to drop rate to the expected 1% had little effect on the pair. Growth potential for the US vs. Euro zone is weighed against the interest differential. The hourly trend is up, and I expect a retest of 1.30. Price now at 1.2875. Raised my stop to 1.2795, below the rising trendline and recent hourly support.

Hourly Chart:

Rising TL crosses1.2585 support/resistance zone near European open. Plan on buying bounce out of this area, entry order raised slightly to 1.2605 based on Fibo projection.

Hourly Chart:

Target of 1.2726 was reached and I booked a 200 point profit. Momentum is likely to continue towards 1.30, but I expect a pullback to 1.26 first since hourlies are overbought and price is far outside its channel. Setting an entry order at 1.26, stop 1.2415, target 1.2990.

Hourly Chart:

Last nights long is in play and first resistance at 1.2585 was broken this morning. Target is 1.2726. Stop tightened to 1.2415.

We are finally seeing some definite bottom patterns appear on the EURUSD charts. Whether this is it or not, sooner or later fundamentals HAVE to assert themselves again, and the recent panic rally of the USD is simply unsustainable.

The daily chart of this pair is now showing good fibo symmetry with the 38.2% and 61.8% lines falling into strong technical support/resistance zones. The daily RSI trendline is still holding, and we have a confirmed triple divergence. A double bottom has formed on the hourlies, and more importantly, we are now seeing quadruple RSI divergence, and a yet unbroken rising RSI trendline. Volatility has been high over the last 3 days, with three 250 point up AND down swings just over the last 3 trading days. A break above 1.2585 and then the declining upper channel trend line on the hourlies will confirm the new uptrend. We will likely see some consolidation before 1.2585 is broken, with 1.25 and 1.24 providing support.

Alternatively we could see a break of 1.2328 and further downside.

Action Plan: My previous long position developed as planned initially, and I raised my stop. Failed to take profit near 1.30 and got stopped out at entry level. Now going long at 1.2526, stop below 1.2328 low at 1.2288.

Support: 1.25 L-10-24    1.2400 HSpptRsst    1.2328 L-10-27

Resistance: 1.2585 H-10-27    1.2730 L-10-22    1.3000 H-10-23

RSI: Dly: 3x div, supported by rising TL, Hrly: 4x div, supported by rising TL

Hourly Chart:

Daily Chart:

Steep fall to 1.2730 leaves a rather complete looking classic corrective move on the daily charts (downleg, upleg, downleg). Nice symmetry and Fibo alignment. Dailies are heavily oversold, and are about to leave a triple divergence on the daily RSI chart, while hitting the rising trendline at the same time. 1.2730 has been tested and held in all 3 sessions (Asia, Europe, US). The daily charts are screaming for a major correction now. Prices broke above the falling trendline on the hourlies, and RSI broke the long term declining trend line. A major bounce is likely at this point and could potentially go all the way back to 1.3250, the major breakdown point and the location of the daily EMA10 at this point.

Alternatively we could see further sideways consolidation at current levels. New lows in the medium term cannot be ruled out but are rather unlikely in the short term.

Action Plan: My short entry was not hit and I missed the drop to 1.2730. Admit that I was surprised by how hard and fast the pair fell, despite expecting a pullback to the 1.26..1.27 area based on wave and Fibo projections. All indicators are now calling for more upside at least short term, and I went long at 1.2864 after the hourly declining TL was broken. Stop set at 1.2670 and initial target is 1.3240.

Support:1.2730 L-10-22    1.2483 L-10-13-06    1.2331 H-4-6-06

Resistance:1.2943 H-10-22    1.3050 HSpptRsst    1.3256 HSpptRsst

RSI: Hrly: broke above decl. TL, supported by rising TL, Dly: bullish 3x div.

Hourly Chart:

1.3256 was decisively broken last night, and downside momentum is strong. Abandoning my bullish bias and joining the bear camp at this point. Oversold hourlies are correcting but I expect a failure ahead of 1.3256, near the declining hourly trendline (1.3250). More weakness likely, and there is little support until 1.3055, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the all-time-high (1.6037) to all-time-low (0.8230) range, which also coincides with the daily support/resistance zone around 1.3050..70.

Alternatively, we may see a break of the declining trendline and a return above 1.3256, which would call for futrher recovery.

Action Plan: I set a short entry at 1.3245, with a stop at 1.3320, target 1.3065.

Support: 1.3065 DSpptRsst    1.3055 Fibo62 of All Time Range    1.2970 H-5-15-06

Resistance: 1.3256 L-10-10    1.3287 L-10-20    1.3345 L-10-16

RSI: Hrly: capped by decl. TL, Dly: about to break below rising TL

Hourly Chart: