GDX has formed a nice bullish base in November, and broke through initial resistance at 24.1. Currently overbought, but the size of the base pattern calls for more upside to test at least the 38.2% Fibo level at 29.2. Watch spot gold this month, December is historically strong for gold and gold stocks, and we may very well see $1000/oz getting challenged.

Waiting for a test of 1.2565, potentially at a time that coincides with the bottom of the hourly bearish price channel and key RSI support at 30. If 1.2565 is being tested and holds, I will go long.

For the short term, I’m predicting a gradual consolidation towards the hourly EMA20 and another sharp downleg after that. Plenty of event risk over the next 2 days that could push the pair either way.

This weeks bullish move lost momentum yesterday, and 1.2958 proved to be strong resistance as expected. I failed to follow my own plan to exit my long on either one of those failures, and too much turkey had something to do with it. :0 Took an avoidable loss of 165 points on this trade as as result. As a general rule, I always rather exit a trade ahead or near key resistance, and re-enter later on a clear break (20+ points) of this level. It is always better to miss out on a profitable trade, than stay in a losing one.

The sharp down-move in European trading last night has the potential to leave a very bullish pattern on the daily charts, if a bounce ahead of 1.2565 occurs. If that level is broken, however, we will likely see a resumption of the downtrend.

My fundamental long term view is still clearly bearish on the dollar, and becoming more so with every new bailout. The Euro should benefit from what I see as an unavoidable inflationary pressure, and I’m looking for the current deflationary period to end soon.

Will reset my long on a bounce at or ahead of 1.2565, with 1.3297, the key Fibo resistance my target once again.

Support: 1.2673 Fibo38    1.2565 HSpptRsst    1.2422 L-11-20

Resistance: 1.2802 HSpptRsst    1.2958 HSpptRsst    1.3080 HRsst

RSI: Hrly: in a bearish channel, Dly: near up TL

Hourly Chart:

Daily Chart:

The pair has turned down overnight leaving an RSI failure swing on the charts. Pattern however still bullish looking with the recent downturn looking more like a healthy correction than the end of the hourly upward trend. Nevertheless, the failure swing, coupled with thin Thanksgiving volume, warrants caution, and I plan on exiting this trade on a failure to break key resistance at 1.2958. But will reestablish long at 1.3040 when price action has re-confirmed the current uptrend. Stay long if feeling aggressive.

Support:1.2828 Fibo62    1.2802 HSpptRsst    1.2565 HSpptRsst

Resistance:1.2958 HSpptRsst    1.3080 HRsst    1.3115 H-11-5

RSI: Hrly: capped by decl TLs, Dly: supported by rising TL, near 50, bullish and room for upside

Hourly Chart:

Back to the trading desk after 2 weeks Hawaii.

Long consolidation period followed by a sharp advance leaves a convincing bottom pattern at least for the short term, and calls for a move towards 38.2% Fibo at 1.3297. Just entered a new long trade on the pullback after this mornings sharp upmove to the hourly EMA10. Hourly and daily RSIs look bullish and call for more upside. Next resistance is 1.3115, November’s high. Stop at 1.2770, below the rising hourly channel, and hourly EMA20, as well as key support at 1.28.

Support: 1.2802 HSpptRsst    1.2565 HSpptRsst    1.2422 L-11-20

Resistance: 1.3080 HRsst    1.3115 H-11-5    1.3256 L-10-9

RSI: Hrly: broke through decl. TL, bullish, Dly: supported by rising TL, bullish

Hourly Chart:

Daily Chart:

Short entry set last week was triggered yesterday morning and has been in play ever since. Tightened stop to 1.2690 on the failure to break above 1.2650. Next resistance is 1.2474, followed by 1.2444, and finally 1.2330, my target for this trade.

Hourly Chart:

The pair has formed a large wedge on the hourlies/dailes, which is generally a continuation pattern. Hourlies are currently rolling over again. A breakout to the downside of this wedge would validate the existing down trend. In that case, a retest of 1.2328 is very likely, and possibly a move to 1.2133 (Fibo50 of the all time range).

Alternatively, we may see a breakout to the upside, with 1.3250 the next target. A break above 1.3297 would indicate that a bottom at 1.2328 is in place.

Action Plan: Sidelined as long as price stays within the wedge. I set a short entry order at 1.2635, stop at 1.2875, target 1.2330.

Support: 1.2698 Fibo62    1.2665 L-10-31    1.2585 H-10-27

Resistance: 1.2812 Fibo50    1.2926 Fibo38    1.2985 HSpptRsst

RSI: Hrly: bearish, capped by decl. TL, Dly: supported by rising and decl. TL

Hourly Chart:

Momentum is slowing and 1.2710 is holding ahead of Fibo38. RSI is near oversold. Rebound is likely at this point and I exited my short trade for a small profit. May sell a failure at 1.28.

Short entry order at 1.2770 was triggered, and survived the rebound to the 62.8 Fibo level at 1.2926. Now about to challenge the 38.2% Fibo level at 1.2698. Will tighten stop on a break below that level. Target is 1.2585, stop at 1.2960 (which was also my long entry order).

Downward momentum is accelerating and 1.2585 is a conservative target. The dailies are at a critical juncture today, and are about to break or bounce near the declining AND rising RSI trend lines. The next 2 trading days will likely determine whether we’ll see a retest of 1.2328 or 1.3297.

Support: 1.2698 Fibo62    1.2665 L-10-31    1.2585 H-10-27

Resistance: 1.2812 Fibo50    1.2926 Fibo38    1.2985 HSpptRsst

RSI: Hrly: capped by decl. TL, Dly: supported by rising and decl. TL

Hourly Chart:

Daily Chart:

Exiting my long trade on 1.2881 for a 58 point profit as downside pressure persists. Scope for further upside remains, and I set a long entry order at 1.2960. A break below 1.28 would call for further downside, and I placed a short entry order at 1.2770 as well.