The pair corrected hard overnight, and position squaring at year end weighed on the Euro. Sharp bounce after the limited break of 1.39 however, and a recovery towards 1.41 is likely. Re-established my stopped out long position at 1.3960, with a target of 1.4075. Stop at 1.3811.

Hourly Chart:

Went long at market, ahead of my entry order. Stop 1.3960, target 1.47.

Bullish looking dailies and hourlies, and a retest of 1.47 is now likely. The daily EMA10 has caught up with price and is acting as strong support, and 1.39 is holding as well. Set a long entry at 1.4075 to catch a pullback which should complete the latest hourly correction (second leg). Tight stop at 1.3960, target 1.47.

Hourly Chart:

Stopped out twice in a row, first during last nights short and then again this morning after going long too early. In retrospect, I failed to wait for confirmation of the trend turn, on both trades, and could have avoided a 200pt loss.

The pair has bounced off 1.39, establishing this level now as very strong support. Further recovery towards at least 1.4190 is likely, and I’m planning to enter on a pullback towards 1.4050. May not get a larger discount than that before the uptrend continues, and sideways consolidation around the hourly EMA10 is the most likely scenario for the next few hours. Momentum should pick up again towards the end of Asia and into the European open. Will likely take profit before Europe, and not hold this trade into the US session.

Hourly Chart:

The move to 1.4350 overnight broke some key resistance levels and calls for further upside. Went long at 1.4215, as the pair seems to find support above key level of 1.4182, and also hit rising TL support on the hourly RSI chart. Stop set at 1.4090, target is 1.4615, just below the 61.8% Fibo of the 1.60-1.23 range.

Support: 1.4182 HSpptRsst, DFibo50   1.4125 HSpptRsst    1.4000 HSpptRsst

Resistance: 1.4362 HRsst   1.4435 HRsst   1.4620 DFibo62

RSI: Hrly: supported by rising TL, Dly: supported by rising TL

Hourly Chart:

Went short near strong resistance at 1.4175, as the pair seems to lose momentum and is near overbought levels. Stop set at 1.4230, giving the trade a little room for a false breakout and initial target is 1.39, but will let trade run on a break below that level, and only cover for a profit on a clear bounce out of 1.3805. Final target is 1.33.

The pair is slowly trending upwards, and hit strong resistance at 1.4175. The hourlies are supported by a rising trend line, that will soon become unsustainable. The chart pattern on the hourly chart calls for a retest and likely false break of 1.3825, possibly stopping at 1.3805 (62.8% Fibo pullback of the current upleg), or 1.3750 (38.2 Fibo of the 1.23-1.60 daily range). Also, a touching of the daily EMA10 is expected just before the uptrend resumes.  But the long slow sideways section on the hourlies over the last few days could lead to a second 900-point downleg, completing the correction which could end at 1.33, the 38.2 Fibo of the current leg. Given this potential, I’m planning a short trade if the hourlies are rolling over within the next few hours, and 1.4175 is holding. A break of 1.4175 would favor further upside and the pullback should be limited.

Support: 1.4125 HSpptRsst    1.4000 HSpptRsst   1.3825 L-12-19

Resistance: 1.4182 DFibo50   1.4435 HRsst   1.4718 H-12-18

RSI: Hrly: supported by rising TL, Dly: supported by rising TL

Hourly Chart:

Removed my 1.3760 entry order and will wait for the next bounce instead. The pattern on the hourlies favors a pullback that could extend deeper than 1.3745, possibly to the 50% Fibo at 1.3633. Will be patient and watch the Asia-Europe transition in particular. Only a move below 1.3375 will change my long bias.

The sharp correction continued overnight, and 1.3890 provides initial support. Downside momentum still strong and chart pattern looks incomplete and favors a move to 1.3745, the 38.2% Fibo of the 1.23-1.60 range, and near hourly support at 1.3735. This level will also coincide with the daily EMA10 at that point. I expect a bounce at that level over the next 24 trading hours and set an entry order at 1.3760, tight stop at 1.3695. Target is 1.60.

Daily Chart:

No desire to grab the tiger by the tail here, and watching the reversal unfold after the 200day moving average finally put an initial stop to the Euro’s advance. Looking for a long entry opportunity, but with a selloff of 5 big figures in 6 hours, I have no desire to be early. Eying a 38.2% retracement to 1.3890, or 1.3805, depending on where you set the bottom of the Fibo range. A 50% retracement would make 1.35..1.36 the target. Either way, 1.4718 is likely an intermediate top, and given the high volatility, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 50% correction of this move before it picks up again. Confirmation is critical before entering any trades.

Support: 1.4191 HRsst    1.4000 HSppt    1.3890 Fibo62

Resistance: 1.4490 HRsst    1.4715 HRsst    1.4865 H-9-21

RSI: Hrly: broke through decl. TL, almost o/b, Dly: turning down from highly o/b

Hourly Chart: