Raised my stop on the long position to 1.2918, 1.2943 seems to be a short term bottom. Target is 1.3320.

Not much luck with my shorts today. Second short got stopped out at 1.3060. Sharp rally, partially due to short covering, but nevertheless indicating a change in direction at least short term, if not medium term. Going with the flow here, especially since my original analysis identified 1.2830 as key support, which it seems to turn into, despite lack of a clear bottom pattern on the hourlies.

Went long at 1.2988, stop 1.2870, target 1.3320, but may take profit ahead of key resistance at 1.32.

Closed one of my short positions at a 36pt loss, sharp rebound underway with some room to run. Stop on remaining short position left at 1.3060.

Went short again after consolidation period in Europe appears to break down to the downside. Bought the pullback after 1.2850 was tested. Two short positions established, one at 1.2914, the other one at 1.2897. Stop for the first position at 1.2985, and for the second at 1.3060. Target for both at 1.2680.

Support: 1.2850 HSppt   1.2670 DlyTL/FiboProj   1.2548 L-12-04

Resistance: 1.2965 HRsst   1.3025 L-1-15   1.3140 HSppt

RSI: Dly: Bearish, Hrly: Failed to break TL

Hourly Chart:

I exited my short trade at a 2pt profit since upside momentum persists, and will likely continue into the European open. Will reset my short trade then. High similarity with price action on 1/13.

Went short as the short covering rally hit strong resistance at 1.30. Stop set at 1.3060, target is 1.2680.

A long string of divergences on the hourly RSI chart call for a bounce soon. I missed going short on the last move waiting for a better entry near 1.32, but will look to sell the next bounce, or buy into the beginning of it with a tight stop. 1.2850 is likely a short term bottom, but doesn’t look like the final bottom yet. A more convincing bottom would be formed by a bounce to 1.30 from current levels, and then one final “fall-out” move to 1.2670, the next key support level. Will patiently wait for confirmation on either trade.

Hourly Chart:

Daily Chart:

Clearly out of sync on the last two trades. Was trying to anticipate bounces rather than going with the existing hourly trend. Will adjust my entries by going back to waiting for confirmation and trading with the prevailing trend (both hourly and daily), rather than anticipating bounces which ends up in top and bottom picking, not a recipe for successful trading.

The downside break of 1.32 will likely be followed by more downside and a retest of 1.3025. A bounce near support at 1.3140 is currently underway, but should be capped by resistance at 1.32. Will wait for a clear failure at this level and then consider a short near 1.32 with a target of 1.2845. Stop would be set at 1.3290.

Daily trend is still down, price was capped by the declining EMA10, and the charts are now calling for a move to 1.2830, where the declining daily TL intersects with the rising daily TL, and solid daily support and resistance. Only concern is that the RSI chart is showing a break above the declining TL, but that’s partially due to a more or less “false” daily candle left by the weekend transition.

The chart pattern on the hourlies is also far from complete looking, and does not indicate a near term reversal of the daily down trend. There’s a good alignment of hourly support leveles with Fibo levels between key resistance at 1.3335 and key support at 1.2830.

Support: 1.3100 HSppt   1.3025 L-1-15   1.2830 DSpptRsst

Resistance: 1.3225 HSpptRsst   1.3335 HSpptRsst   1.3450 HRsst

RSI: Dly: broke above decl. TL, Hrly: Bearish, broke rising and decl. TL, now bouncing out of oversold

Hourly Chart:

Daily Chart:

Went long on the pullback to the EMA48, and support near 1.3270. Typical pullback pattern during the Asia/Europe transition and bullish RSI with room to run are in support of the trade. RSI is at rising TL further supporting a bounce. Stop set below 1.32, which should act as strong support. Target is 1.3530, just below key resistance at 1.3540.

Hourly Chart:

The pair broke out of its hourly channel yesterday, and stopped out one of my shorts at a 87pt loss. The other one with a wider stop at 1.3350 survived the night, and I’m attempting to exit it near entry (adjusted the limit to 1.3151). The pair is currently heading down working off oversold conditions, and is likely to test the upper line of its previous channel which should act as support. Good chance to exit my other short at a tiny loss. Sidelined for a while after that, since consolidation and sideways trading may occur before the pair either resumes its downward trend, or turns up. 1.31 and 1.3340 are key levels I’m watching.

Support: 1.3200 HSpptRsst   1.3150 HSpptRsst    1.3100 HSppt

Resistance: 1.3335 HRsst   1.3450 HRsst   1.3540 HSpptRsst

RSI: Dly: Capped by decl. TL, Hrly: bullish, supported by rising TL, broke through decl. TL

Hourly Chart: