I exited my short for a 50 point profit at 1.3190. Limited downside pressure so far, and there’s a good chance for a rebound at this point. Prefer to lock in some profit.

The pair is rolling over and the hourly RSI broke its rising TL. I went short at 1.3239 with a target of 1.3070. Stop is set at 1.3370. The pair has room to go lower and I expect a move towards key support at 1.3065.

And “move” it did, but not the direction I thought it would. The pair was definitely at a critial juncture around midnight last night, and could have gone either way at this point. The wide open space left below the hourly chart and the “overhang” did worry me a bit last night and I actually got out of bed to exit my long position at entry and replaced it with an entry order at 1.3605, which turned out to be a very fortunate move.

It doesn’t look like the move towards 1.3240 will be reversed before the end of trading today, and there is a good chance of a daily close below the daily EMA10, which would signal further downside. In the short term, I expect a move back towards the lower channel boundary (1.3250′ish) or key support/resistance at 1.3415. The daily EMA10 is another target for a rebound, now at 1.3410 and likely around 1.34 on Sunday. I will go short on a clear failure near these levels. Watch for the hourly RSI to reach the 50 level first before the next downleg gets underway. The daily RSI has now confirmed its turn and is headed for the rising trendline, and 50 level. 1.3065 is the next target, fibo projection, and strong support.

Hourly Chart:

Sideways consolidation continues near the top of the bullish flag channel, and I expect a strong upmove very soon. Hourly EMAs have converged and the pair looks like it’s ready to “blow”.

Hourly Chart:

Sharp rebound overnight followed by an equally sharp reversal leaves price action looking for direction, but the upside should prevail based on current chart patterns. I expect a pullback towards 1.3490 and further upside from there for a retest of the upper hourly channel line (now at 1.3620) followed by 1.3745. The pair is set for a topside break out of its bullish flag pattern with a fibo-projected target of 1.4180 which is also the daily Fibo50 of the 1.60..1.23 range.

I exited my long at entry around midnight last night when price action failed to show any meaningful upside momentum. This turned out to be a mistake, but I reestablished the long position this morning at 1.3450, and will add a position at 1.35 if given the chance. 1.3415 looks like a well-confirmed solid bottom now, and my stop is 25 points below at 1.3390.

Support: 1.3490 HSppt   1.3415 L-3-18, HSppt   1.3240 Fibo38

Resistance: 1.3620 Hlry Channel   1.3745 Fibo38   1.3805 Fibo62

RSI: Hrly: bullish, broke above decl. TL, Dly: rolling over, below o/b

Hourly Chart:

I went long with a small position at 1.3453 after the pair seems to find support at the lower hourly channel boundary. I don’t have confirmation for a bounce at this point, but not risking much on this trade, and bullish divergence on the hourlies as well as past price action support the trade. Stop is tight at 1.3390, if 1.3415 gives there’s a good chance of a move to 1.3240.

The downside has been limited again this morning and a break below 1.3484 did not see any follow through, similar to all breaks lower for the last few days. This makes the case for another upleg stronger with every day that closes above the daily EMA10 now at 1.34. Also, consolidation has been near the highs of this 1.2455-1.2745 upleg, and has only gently dropped as is typical before the beginning of the next move up. Hourly EMAs 10, 48, and 100 have all converged, the daily EMA10 has almost caught up with price, and so has a rising TL on the dailies, all indicators that we’ll see a new momentum move soon, and the trend clearly favors the upside at this point. The hourly RSI shows a bullis failure swing, but the overbought dailies are a big concern. But a good example how this can be relevant in a strong upleg is the period of 2/27/08-3/17/08.

I will look for a clear close above the hourly EMA10 and then look for a long entry opportunity on a dip. But need to see confirmation first, rather be late and not get sucked into a long that is followed by a drop to 1.3240. A drop to 1.3240 would not invalidate the bullish scenario and I’d prefer to go long on a bounce out of that level. For earlier entries, stops need to be tight or below 1.3240. I have also placed an entry order at 1.3755 with a stop at 1.3595 and a target at 1.47.

Support: 1.3475 HSppt   1.3415 HSppt   1.3400 DEMA10

Resistance: 1.3700 HRSst   1.3745 DFibo38, HRsst   1.3805 DFibo68

RSI: Hrly: bullish FS, capped by decl. TL, Dly: highly o/b

Hourly Chart:

Resistance at 1.3740 has been tested 3 times now and held, and it is likely that price is now about to probe support levels. A likely technical move is a 38.2% retracement of the recent daily upleg, to 1.3240. The hourlies show an accelerating downside momentum, and new downside below 1.35 should see follow through once the bounce has faded. There is good hourly resistance around 1.3575..85: hourly EMA10 and EMA48, rising hourly TL, falling hourly TL, and Fibo 50 of the hourly range between 1.3415 and 1.3740. I plan on going short if this resistance area holds and price turns down again. The stop would be set at 1.3710 and the target would be 1.3250. In the medium term, if 1.3240 holds we should see further upside with a move towards 1.39.

Hourly Chart:

Looks like the bull party is about to be over, at least for now. The pair struggled to stay above the 62.8% Fibo retracement at 1.3538 for most of the European session, and above my stop at 1.3520, which was finally taken out a few minutes ago (I had gone long last night at 1.3670.) So far, the last supports the bulls have left are a rising channel line, price channel line, and EMA48, all around 1.3510, but none of it of too much significance. The move to 1.3515 should see follow through and 1.3416 is the next target. The hourly RSI is bearish but only at 40 and has room for further downside.

Support: 1.3538 Fibo62, H-3-18   1.3457 HSpptRsst   1.3415 HSppt

Resistance: 1.3614 Fibo62   1.3682 HRsst   1.3745 Fibo38 (Daily)

RSI: Hrly: bearish with room to run, Dly: bullish but highly overbought

Hourly Chart:

Looking to increase my long positions again on a pullback towards 1.3620. Further upside possible if hourlies work off overbought conditions. Dailies are nearing heavily overbought readings, indicating that a larger correction may take place soon. Will try to buy bounces with tight stops.

Hourly Chart: