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The world’s leading economy released its preliminary reading for the fourth quarter 2009, GDP…

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Oil, gold and silver are set to correct higher as rising stock markets in Asia and Europe as well as higher US equity index futures point to a broad recovery in risk appetite.

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LONDON (Reuters) – Oil jumped 2 percent to near $80 a barrel on Friday as an upwards revision in U.S. gross domestic product for the fourth quarter helped revive lackluster sentiment.

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I exited my short this morning at 1.3581 for a 78 point loss. There is real risk for the upside to continue past 1.3630, and my stop barely survived once. Using the opportunity to cut my losses now.

Hourly RSI has room for more upside and has stayed above neutral since yesterday morning. The “surprise factor” is on the bull side, the expected drop may not come, and bears will use it to exit their shorts (as I just did.)

Resistance at 1.3630 is not that strong, 1.3655 should be more difficult to take out. A close above the daily EMA10 at 1.3595 would signal that more upside is likely next week, and that this is the beginning of a larger correction. A close below the daily EMA10 would leave things open, and we may see a capitulation move down towards 1.33. Sidelined until I see some clear direction.

Support: 1.3550 HSppt   1.3515 SpptRsst   1.3444 HSppt

Resistance: 1.3630 HRsst   1.3653 HSpptRsst   1.3688 H-2-23

RSI: Hrly: bullish with room for more upside, but capped by decl. TL, Dly: capped by decl. TL resistance, mildly bullish

Hourly Chart:

I raised my stop to 1.3635, something I very rarely do, and remain short. I only raised the stop based on the dynamics of the last two hour’s rally, which I believe is unsustainable and will fall back to below 1.35 shortly. If consolidation above 1.35 occurs, I’m looking to exit my short at a small loss.

EURUSD – Euro Forecast Turns Aggressively Bearish
GBPUSD – British Pound Outlook Remains Bearish
USDJPY – Japanese Yen Forecast to Rally Sharply
USDCHF – Swiss Franc Expected to Lose Further
USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast to Weaken Against USD
GBPJPY – British Pound Forecast Bearish versus Japanese Yen

View individual currency SSI charts in our FX Sentiment section

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