I added a table listing all EURUSD trades I posted on this blog starting this year. The purpose is to track performance. This trade record can be found here, and there’s also a link to it in the title bar.

First signs of today’s rally running out of steam, and stalling ahead of resistance at 1.3690, at the trendline that limits price to 1.3675. I reestablished my short at 1.3646, stop at 1.3765, target 1.3255. Entry possibly a bit early, but I feel that I could easily work myself out of this trade without major losses since we’re heading into the low-volume Asia session, and a lot more upside on top of what price has already traveled during the US session is unlikely. Gold and silver already sold off sharply after following similar upswing patterns earlier today, and they are often a harbinger of what’s to come for the Euro.

Rebound and consolidation above the hourly EMA10 signals further gains in the near term. Hourly RSI is bullish and has room for further gains. 1.3630..55 is a pretty strong resistance zone and we may see gains capped by 1.3655. But hard to tell where price will go from here, we may continue to trade in the 1.35..1.37 zone for another day.

My short got stopped out this morning for a 30 point loss. I’m looking to reset it on a failure to take out 1.3655. Long term bias still bearish.

Support: 1.3550 Fibo62 1.3530 HSpptRsst 1.3460 Sppt

Resistance: 1.3653 HSpptRsst 1.3690 HSpptRsst 1.3735 H-3-3

RSI: Hrly: bullish, Dly: slightly bullish, broke above decl. TL resistance

Hourly Chart:

I tightened my stop to 1.3630, limiting the potential loss on this short trade to 30 points. Short in play now, but need to protect capital overnight. The pair rolled over without much of a fight or failed rally, not trusting the downside very much. Also oversold and near support. Cautious.

I just went short at 1.3600, stop at 1.3760, target 1.3255. 1.3620..30 should cap any further upside in the short term.

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure, and yesterday’s expected recovery towards 1.3690 failed to materialize. Price remained below 1.3630 and fell another 100 points to 1.3530 overnight. Recovering now, and I expect 1.3605 to act as resistance. Short term momentum is slightly bullish, but the medium and long term trends are bearish. I missed going short yesterday afternoon waiting for better prices, and am now hoping to go short near 1.36.

Support: 1.3550 Fibo62   1.3530 HSpptRsst    1.3460 Sppt

Resistance: 1.3605 HSpptRsst   1.3653 HSpptRsst   1.3690 HSpptRsst

RSI: Hrly: bearish but bouncing off o/s,  Dly: slightly bullish, broke above decl. TL resistance

Hourly Chart:

1.3690 capped any further advances for now, and the pair sold off during early European and early US trading. Slight recovery underway now, and I expect the pair to pull back up to its hourly EMA10 in the short term and attempt another run at 1.3690 before falling back to new lows below 1.36. My strategy is now to sell into this rally if it happens. Daily RSI is still bullish and a slight concern, but it fell back below 50.

Support: 1.3605 HSppt   1.3550 Fibo62   1.3530 HSpptRsst

Resistance: 1.3653 HSpptRsst   1.3690 HSpptRsst   1.3735 H-3-3

RSI: Hrly: bearish but near o/s,  Dly: bullish, broke above decl. TL resistance

Hourly Chart:

The target of my long position (1.3685) was reached and my trade closed for a 117 point profit. Hourlies are overbought and I expect consolidation back towards 1.3650 in late Asia. Not sure where price will move from here but I expect the upside to prevail in European trading, or sideways trading. A move above 1.37 is quite possible.

My long term bias is still bearish, and I’m looking to set a short above 1.37 in case the rally currently underway stalls and price shows signs of turning down again.

NFP caused some volatility but interpretation is not clear cut and the less than expected drop could be interpreted as bullish for the dollar (US economy improving) or bearish (risk aversion decreasing, good for the Euro). The latter seems to win the upper hand after an initial sell off in the EURUSD pair reversed quickly and price is now looking bullish on the short term (5 min) charts. The hourly RSI is bearish but oversold and the daily RSI calls for further upside.

Gold has already bounced sharply and is holding above $1130 support. Plus we’re trading on Friday after a drop on Thursday, often bullish for the EURUSD. My short term bias is definitely bullish.

I went long at 1.3568 with a stop at 1.3515, target is 1.3685. That’s a short term trade and I’m still looking to set my short near or preferably above 1.37.

Support: 1.3530 HSpptRsst   1.3550 Fibo62   1.3515..00 SpptRsst

Resistance: 1.3606 HRsst   1.3620 Fibo38   1.3653 HSpptRsst

RSI: Hrly: bearish but near o/s and support at 25,  Dly: bullish, broke above decl. TL resistance, above 50

Hourly Chart:

Sharp drop to the 62.8% Fibo retracement of the recent hourly range (1.3434-1.3735). I expect price to find support there and rebound towards 1.3620 in the short term. I also expect a retest of 1.3735, likely in European trading tonight or NY trading tomorrow. Yesterday’s close above the daily EMA20 along with the bullish break of the daily RSI above its declining trend line resistance are two strong bullish signs and call for further upside, at least a retest of yesterday’s highs. Also, the structure of the 1.3434-1.3735 rally is very bullish looking and I would be surprised to see the pair drop to new lows right away from here.

I exited my short too early yesterday and regret that now. Sidelined for now, waiting for another short entry opportunity above 1.3700.

Support: 1.3550 Fibo62   1.3515..00 SpptRsst   1.3460 HSppt

Resistance: 1.3583 Fibo50   1.3620 Fibo38   1.3653 HSpptRsst

RSI: Hrly: bearish,  Dly: bullish, broke above decl. TL resistance, above 50

Hourly Chart:

Daily Chart: