Dailies turned bearish with today’s close and the daily EMA10 is pointing down. There may be a short entry opportunity coming up tomorrow if price consolidates sideways over the next 24 hours. 1.2140…60 is a key support area, and a drop below that could open the way for a quick move to 1.1875.

1.2260 is the next important resistance level, and has acted multiple times as support and resistance over the past few days.

There’s scope for another upleg towards 1.26 but I think it’s more likely that the downtrend will reestablish itself yet again, which would also coincide with USD-bullish developments in other currency pairs.

Support:    1.2208 HSppt, L-6-23   1.2150 L-6-29, KeySppt    1.1875 L-6-7

Resistance: 1.2260 SpptRsst   1.2300 HSpptRsst   1.2396 H-6-27

RSI: Hrly: bearish, broke below rising TL, Dly: neutral, rolling over

Hourly Chart:

I exited my long early this morning after the hourly close below the EMA48 at 1.2343. Price should have continued to rally strongly for the trade entry to remain valid, but broke below the 61.8% Fibo retracement and is now challenging the 50% level. Sidelined until the picture clears up.

Hourly Chart:

Upside breakout happened instead of expected downside move. Exited my short position at 1.2392 for a 92 point loss and reversed into a long at the same price. Long consolidation phase should be followed by a sizable directional move, and the uptrend is reestablishing itself. Stop at 1.2237, initial target 1.2570, but may let it run further.

My entry was too early, further sideways consolidation will likely last into the weekend, ahead of the G20 meeting. I set the limit on this trade at 1.2300 in an attempt to exit the trade at break even.

Consolidation yesterday was followed by a break to the downside. Pretty strong recovery since, but the bearish bias remains on the hourly chart, and hourly RSI is capped by a declining trend line. There is quite a bit of room here for a drop and we’re at a low risk entry level. I went short this morning at 1.2300 with a stop 15 points above yesterday’s high at 1.2406. Initial target is 1.2160, but will let this trade run if price dynamics shows strong and accelerating momentum over the next few days.

Support:    1.2260 HSppt   1.2207 HSpptRsst   1.2167 L-6-15

Resistance: 1.2352 H-6-16   1.2387 H-6-24   1.2403 Fibo1.27

RSI: Hrly: bearish, broke below rising TL and capped by decl. TL, Dly: neutral, mildly bullish

Hourly Chart:

A convergence of price and several short and long term moving averages is forming on the hourly chart, indicating that a major directional move may be just ahead of us. Given that the shorter term averages are below the longer term ones, this move should go to the downside. I expect further sideways consolidation for the rest of the session, along with a narrowing price range and then a sharp break to either the downside or the upside.

Support:    1.2207 HSpptRsst   1.2167 L-6-15   1.2153 HSpptRsst

Resistance: 1.2352 H-6-16   1.2403 Fibo1.27   1.2440 SpptRsst

RSI: Hrly: bearish but supported by rising TL, Dly: neutral

Hourly Chart:

The pair managed to close above the daily EMA10 and EMA20 yesterday, which maintains a slightly bullish tone. The drop this morning came without a push to the upside first, and is likely lacking strength for significant follow-through. Hourly RSI is near oversold support. I expect price to move sideways or even slowly recover for the remainder of the NY trading session.

Support:    1.2207 HSpptRsst   1.2167 L-6-15   1.2153 HSpptRsst

Resistance: 1.2315 HSpptRsst  1.2352 H-6-16   1.2403 Fibo1.27

RSI: Hrly: bearish but near o/s support, Dly: bullish but near neutral and rolling over

Hourly Chart:

The expected drop to the 1.2285 happened, but took two days to complete. Still, this paints a slightly bearish picture and there’s a good chance the long term down trend is in the process of re-establishing itself over the next few days. A close below the daily EMA10 and EMA20 (currently in the 1.2270..90 range) would be in favor of that view.

Hourly RSI is bearish. For the rest of the day we may see a continuation of the downtrend, with a slight slow recovery starting in Asia. I’m sidelined until I see some more directionality in the daily trend, right now we’re in the middle of a turn.

Support:    1.2241 HSppt, L-6-17   1.2207 HSpptRsst   1.2167 L-6-15

Resistance: 1.2352 H-6-16   1.2403 Fibo1.27 1.2466 Fibo1.618, H-6-21

RSI: Hrly: bearish, Dly: bullish but near neutral and rolling over

Hourly Chart:

Triple bearish divergence on the RSI chart with the recent spike at the New Zealand opening, and price dynamics looks pretty bearish as well. The last upswing has a weak base (or none at all), and stopped right at strong resistance near 1.2466. Look for a move below the hourly EMA10 in Asia, possibly a very sharp drop to the 1.2285 area. We’re at a critical juncture for the USD here, which is at major support levels in many currency pairs (e.g. USDCAD, GPDUSD). Overall, I expect the USD index to make new highs over the coming weeks, but will need to see confirmation for that first, for now it’s just a “big-picture hunch”.

Hourly Chart:

A sharp rebound at the European opening and break of 1.2350 was followed by an immediate move to the 1.27 extension at 1.24. Price is now consolidating a bit, but I expect a gradual move to 1.2465..75 eventually.

Currently sidelined since I missed the move I wanted to trade yesterday. Not interested in chasing what I consider the final push before the correction runs out.

Support: 1.2352 H-6-16   1.2241 HSppt   1.2200 L-6-15

Resistance: 1.2403 Fibo1.27 1.2452 H-5-28   1.2466 Fibo1.618

RSI: Hrly: bullish, Dly: bullish

Hourly Chart: