03/23/09 7:40 am - EURUSD: 1.3240 is next key support

Resistance at 1.3740 has been tested 3 times now and held, and it is likely that price is now about to probe support levels. A likely technical move is a 38.2% retracement of the recent daily upleg, to 1.3240. The hourlies show an accelerating downside momentum, and new downside below 1.35 should see follow through once the bounce has faded. There is good hourly resistance around 1.3575..85: hourly EMA10 and EMA48, rising hourly TL, falling hourly TL, and Fibo 50 of the hourly range between 1.3415 and 1.3740. I plan on going short if this resistance area holds and price turns down again. The stop would be set at 1.3710 and the target would be 1.3250. In the medium term, if 1.3240 holds we should see further upside with a move towards 1.39.

Hourly Chart:

March 23, 2009 · Filed under EUR/USD

3 Comments »

  1. David Said,

    March 23, 2009 @ 10:44 am

    I am short 1.3610 with stop 1.3690, which I may raise a little higher… looks set for a bear run, which means the bulls will probably take charge – hopefully not!

  2. David Said,

    March 23, 2009 @ 10:46 am

    I’ll think we’ll see it back under 1.30 in the medium term….

  3. admin Said,

    March 23, 2009 @ 12:10 pm

    I hope you’re right, I’m still sidelined right now. The clear close above the hourly EMA10 worried me, a bit too much upside. But my bias is still down, and I will only change it if we see a period of sideways trading near 1.36 (i.e. forming a new base for another upleg). I really want to see a sharp downturn soon before I’ll go short.

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