05/14/09 9:19 am - EURUSD: Bearish bias, risk of a break below 1.3525

The pair remained near the bottom of its price channel, and has made new lows yesterday. Hourlies are mildly bearish, and the risk of a break below 1.3525 has increased. A move to the daily MA200 and EMA20 is quite possible, and would also coincide with the Fibo projection of the recent hourly downleg/consolidation. I expect 1.3525 to be challenged again today, possibly followed by a break.

I had added another long position at 1.3603 yesterday, and exited both positions for a net loss of 34 points this morning. I will not go short since the daily trend remains up. A daliy close below 1.3515 would challenge the bullish outlook.

Support: 1.3560 L-5-11   1.3530 Fibo38, HSpptRsst   1.3475 Fibo50

Resistance: 1.3650 HRsst   1.3721 HRsst   1.3737 H-3-19

RSI: Hrly: mildly bearish, Dly: bullish, but broke below rising TL yesterday

Hourly Chart:

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