04/20/09 1:01 pm - EURUSD: Bears in full control, downtrend accelerating

1.2940 was broken this morning. This was a key support level (the 62.8% Fibo retracement) and turns my medium term outlook to bearish.

In the short term, we may see a brief bounce back towards 1.2950 which should now act as resistance. Next downside target is 1.2840.

Hourlies are oversold, but the RSI doesn’t show any divergence yet and there’s scope for more downside. The likelyhood for a strong corrective bounce is increasing though.

Gold has rallied sharply this morning, despite the dollar’s rally. This is usually bullish for the Euro, which has been suffering from its own Eurozone-internal problems lately. We may see a decoupling of Gold from the Euro over the coming months.

I had exited my short last week, too early as it turned out, and am now looking to re-enter the market.

Support: 1.2887 HSppt   1.2840 DFibo21   1.2455 L-3-4

Resistance: 1.2944 Fibo62   1.3020 HSpptRsst   1.3125 SpptRsst

RSI: Hrly: Bearish, o/s, Dly: bearish, broke below rising TL, room for more downside

Hourly Chart:

April 20, 2009 · Filed under EUR/USD

Leave a Comment