04/01/09 7:43 am - EURUSD: Bullish momentum, further upside

The pair has been well supported by a medium term rising trendline so far, and intraday momentum is bullish. I expect a move to and retest of yesterday’s high at 1.3342 and further upside in the medium and long term. The 100-day moving average is also providing good support. If we see a kangarootail on the dailies over the next few days that touches the daily MA100 at its base we’ll have very good confirmation that a new daily upleg is underway. This is typical behavior for this pair and a reliable chart pattern.

I went long at 1.3240 with 1.37 as the target, and a stop at 1.3039. I placed another long entry order at 1.3190, stop at 1.3138 and target 1.3335.

Support: 1.3175 rising TL, hrly sppt   1.3111 L-3-30   1.3065 DSpptRsst

Resistance: 1.3294 HRsst, Fibo38   1.3342 H-3-31, Fibo50  1.3410 Fibo68, HSppt

RSI: Hrly: bullish, broke above decl. TL, supported by rising TL, Dly: bullish, supported by rising TL

Hourly Chart:

Daily Chart:

April 1, 2009 · Filed under EUR/USD

4 Comments »

  1. David Said,

    April 1, 2009 @ 10:43 am

    Nice short trade yesterday Carsten! I currently see a bearish set up. We have retracement from 1.47 high to 1.2450 low of almost 61% fib. There is an overall bearish trend, and we have had an 8 hour spike up and turn down from 1.3280 level. There is also bearish divergence (MACD). I am short at 1.3210, with a stop at 1.3290. My target will depend on how this downward move (if it happens) occurs, but I think we will see this pair head back to 1.30

    Just my thoughts. Good luck with your positions!

  2. David Said,

    April 1, 2009 @ 10:47 am

    Also, the 1.3350 area has proved to be a strong Support and Resistance area from the longer time frame charts and we have already had a bounce off that area yesterday….price could be headed lower….I will not be looking to go long on this pair until it breaks above 1.37/1.38 level

  3. admin Said,

    April 1, 2009 @ 3:14 pm

    Yes, you could be right. There sure isn’t a clear short term right now. But the pair is currently building a base above its hourly EMA10, which is bullish at least intraday. I plan on taking some profit by exiting one of my positions near 1.3340, if given the chance, and will tighten the stop on the other one.

  4. David Said,

    April 1, 2009 @ 5:56 pm

    losing confidence in my short – approaching stop. Maybe I should i stayed on the side lines on this one until a clearer picture emerged. nice work on your profits earlier!

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