04/13/09 9:40 am - EURUSD: Getting our MA100 Bounce after all

After failing to close below the daily MA100 for 3 days in a row, prices rallied past 1.3350 this morning, keeping the possibility of a sharp rally past 1.3740 intact. Based on historic behavior and chart pattern analysis, this is the move that is likely to happen now. Any downside (if we do see more) should be limited to a relatively slow grind towards 1.2940, but not much lower.

A daily close above the daily EMA10 currently at 1.3280 would trigger a long entry. The hourlies are highly overbought now, and I expect a consolidation for the next 12-24 hours similar to how the pair consolidated on 4/2 and 4/3. 1.3230..65 is a natural target for the consolidation (strong support/resistance, Fibo38, trendlines).

I managed to exit my short late last night at a 30 point loss, just before the big rally started. I will stay sidelined until I see a close above the daily EMA10, and the hourlies holding above 1.3240. Planning a long after that, ideally on a bounce off 1.3230 with the hourly RSI below 50.

Support: Fibo50, 1.3335 HRsst   1.3266 Fibo62   1.3230 HSpptRsst

Resistance: 1.3392 Fibo62, HSpptRsst   1.3425 HSpptRsst   1.3490 HSpptRsst

RSI: Hrly: o/b, supported by rising TL, Dly: broke below rising TL, bearish

Hourly Chart:

April 13, 2009 · Filed under EUR/USD

4 Comments »

  1. David Said,

    April 13, 2009 @ 10:51 am

    Euro bulls taking charge. Let’s see if they can maintain a close above 1.34

  2. David Said,

    April 14, 2009 @ 12:11 am

    bulls failed to close above 1.34 – this took me short. could see price back around 1.3250

  3. admin Said,

    April 14, 2009 @ 5:25 am

    Good short, I almost went short as well yesterday. Went long this morning near key support.

  4. David Said,

    April 14, 2009 @ 10:14 am

    currently there is good short term resistance at 1.33

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