12/22/09 9:55 am - EURUSD: Near key support

Another break lower puts us close to key support in the 1.42 area. The pair made a low of 1.4216 before bouncing, just ahead of former 78.6% Fibo support at 1.4207, the 9/4 low at 1.4190 and the 50% Fibo of the 1.6037-1.2328 range at 1.4182. We are also near the daily MA200, today at 1.4194. But a break below 1.4182 today is well possible and I expect an acceleration of the down trend if that happens. Similarity with Aug. ‘08 price action continues to hold, and I’m looking for one last strong “exhaustion move” before a sizable bounce back to the daily EMA10.

My short is in play and I tightened the stop to 1.4365, now that the break below 1.43 is confirmed. Target remains 1.4055.

Support: 1.4207 DFibo78, Sppt Aug/Sep ‘09  1.4194 DMA200   1.4182 DFibo50

Resistance: 1.4265 HSppt   1.4330 HRsst, Channel Boundary   1.4357 WFibo62

RSI: Hrly: mixed, within wedge and nearing breakout, Dly: bearish

Hourly Chart:

EURUSD Hourlies 12-22-09

Daily Chart:

EURUSD Dailies 12-22-09

December 22, 2009 · Filed under EUR/USD

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