03/30/10 7:15 am - EURUSD: Near strong support, expecting rebound

The pullback came much later than I expected, only  after new highs were made in European trading. The Euro is currently supported by relief over the temporary solution of the Greece debt crisis, but technicals and recent price action are also in favor of this upmove to continue for a little longer. We are near strong support at 1.3433, the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the latest hourly range 1.3267-1.3536. 1.3433 is also strong hourly price support.  I expect this level to hold into US trading and we should see a rebound back to above 1.35 and higher. Bearish triple divergence on the hourlies is a concern, but I’ve seen this price pattern many times before and statistics are in favor of a rebound at this point. Daily RSI is rebounding and looks slightly bullish.

I went long at 1.3457 with a stop at 1.3330, target is 1.3568 at which point I will start looking for a short entry opportunity since my long term bias remains bearish until the declining trend line on the dailies is broken on a closing basis.

Support: 1.3433 Fibo68   1.3401 Fibo50   1.3384 Fibo21, HSpptRsst

Resistance: 1.3536 HRsst   1.3568 H-3-22   1.3575 decl. TL Dailies

RSI: Hrly: bearish, 3xdiv, Dly: rebounding, broke above prior decl. TL

Hourly Chart:

EURUSD Hourlies 3-30-10

March 30, 2010 · Filed under EUR/USD

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