04/16/09 7:56 am - EURUSD: Rebound expected to continue

The pair is still capped by a declining trend line, but the RSI is supportive of a continuation of the recent rebound. Once 1.3232 is taken out, prices may rally quickly to 1.33. There is risk of a retest of 1.3150, but current price action suggests we may see further upside from here. The stock market is erasing its early losses and is about to move into positive territory. Gold is still soft.

My long trade survived the night but is still underwater.

Support: 1.3150 L-4-15   1.3128 HSppt   1.3087 L-4-9

Resistance: 1.3232 Fibo50, HSpptRssst   1.3266 Fibo62   1.3305 HRsst

RSI: Hrly: bounced off its long term rising TL, bullish, Dly: mixed

Hourly Chart:

April 16, 2009 · Filed under EUR/USD

2 Comments »

  1. David Said,

    April 16, 2009 @ 9:29 am

    we have a bearish flag on the dailies, with breaking points above 1.34 and below 1.3050

  2. admin Said,

    April 16, 2009 @ 1:19 pm

    You think it’s bearish? Interesting. I see it as a bullish falling wedge/pennant. If it’s sloping against the trend, it’s usually bullish (at least according to Murphy’s “Technical Analysis” bible.)

    Check out this link, these guys think it’s bullish too:
    http://www.dailyfx.com/story/trading_reports/pairs_to_range_trade/Fitting_A_EURUSD_Range_In_1239903504964.html

    But based on my experience, those patterns are never that reliable anyway, all we know is there WILL be a breakout soon, and it may very well be to the downside. I’ll definitely join the bears at 1.3070, but momentum indicators and MAs clearly favor the bullish scenario, in my opinion.

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