I tightened my stop to 1.3630, limiting the potential loss on this short trade to 30 points. Short in play now, but need to protect capital overnight. The pair rolled over without much of a fight or failed rally, not trusting the downside very much. Also oversold and near support. Cautious.

I just went short at 1.3600, stop at 1.3760, target 1.3255. 1.3620..30 should cap any further upside in the short term.

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure, and yesterday’s expected recovery towards 1.3690 failed to materialize. Price remained below 1.3630 and fell another 100 points to 1.3530 overnight. Recovering now, and I expect 1.3605 to act as resistance. Short term momentum is slightly bullish, but the medium and long term trends are bearish. I missed going short yesterday afternoon waiting for better prices, and am now hoping to go short near 1.36.

Support: 1.3550 Fibo62   1.3530 HSpptRsst    1.3460 Sppt

Resistance: 1.3605 HSpptRsst   1.3653 HSpptRsst   1.3690 HSpptRsst

RSI: Hrly: bearish but bouncing off o/s,  Dly: slightly bullish, broke above decl. TL resistance

Hourly Chart:

1.3690 capped any further advances for now, and the pair sold off during early European and early US trading. Slight recovery underway now, and I expect the pair to pull back up to its hourly EMA10 in the short term and attempt another run at 1.3690 before falling back to new lows below 1.36. My strategy is now to sell into this rally if it happens. Daily RSI is still bullish and a slight concern, but it fell back below 50.

Support: 1.3605 HSppt   1.3550 Fibo62   1.3530 HSpptRsst

Resistance: 1.3653 HSpptRsst   1.3690 HSpptRsst   1.3735 H-3-3

RSI: Hrly: bearish but near o/s,  Dly: bullish, broke above decl. TL resistance

Hourly Chart:

The target of my long position (1.3685) was reached and my trade closed for a 117 point profit. Hourlies are overbought and I expect consolidation back towards 1.3650 in late Asia. Not sure where price will move from here but I expect the upside to prevail in European trading, or sideways trading. A move above 1.37 is quite possible.

My long term bias is still bearish, and I’m looking to set a short above 1.37 in case the rally currently underway stalls and price shows signs of turning down again.

NFP caused some volatility but interpretation is not clear cut and the less than expected drop could be interpreted as bullish for the dollar (US economy improving) or bearish (risk aversion decreasing, good for the Euro). The latter seems to win the upper hand after an initial sell off in the EURUSD pair reversed quickly and price is now looking bullish on the short term (5 min) charts. The hourly RSI is bearish but oversold and the daily RSI calls for further upside.

Gold has already bounced sharply and is holding above $1130 support. Plus we’re trading on Friday after a drop on Thursday, often bullish for the EURUSD. My short term bias is definitely bullish.

I went long at 1.3568 with a stop at 1.3515, target is 1.3685. That’s a short term trade and I’m still looking to set my short near or preferably above 1.37.

Support: 1.3530 HSpptRsst   1.3550 Fibo62   1.3515..00 SpptRsst

Resistance: 1.3606 HRsst   1.3620 Fibo38   1.3653 HSpptRsst

RSI: Hrly: bearish but near o/s and support at 25,  Dly: bullish, broke above decl. TL resistance, above 50

Hourly Chart:

Sharp drop to the 62.8% Fibo retracement of the recent hourly range (1.3434-1.3735). I expect price to find support there and rebound towards 1.3620 in the short term. I also expect a retest of 1.3735, likely in European trading tonight or NY trading tomorrow. Yesterday’s close above the daily EMA20 along with the bullish break of the daily RSI above its declining trend line resistance are two strong bullish signs and call for further upside, at least a retest of yesterday’s highs. Also, the structure of the 1.3434-1.3735 rally is very bullish looking and I would be surprised to see the pair drop to new lows right away from here.

I exited my short too early yesterday and regret that now. Sidelined for now, waiting for another short entry opportunity above 1.3700.

Support: 1.3550 Fibo62   1.3515..00 SpptRsst   1.3460 HSppt

Resistance: 1.3583 Fibo50   1.3620 Fibo38   1.3653 HSpptRsst

RSI: Hrly: bearish,  Dly: bullish, broke above decl. TL resistance, above 50

Hourly Chart:

Daily Chart:

Exited my short for a 33 point loss since price is stabilizing above 1.37. Risk for further upside. Still looking for a short entry but will be more patient this time.

(Note: I posted this at 7:33am, an hour before the time of this post. Corrected my blog time afterwards.)

Price is stalling at resistance around 1.3650..75 and short term (5-min) momentum indicators are turning down and show bearish divergences. Hourly RSI is also falling and has closed below the hourly EMA10 a few times, a sign that we’re near the top for this move. Still strong though, and I expect a more or less sideways movement over the next 24 hours, with a slight bearish bias.

I exited my long this morning at 1.3650 for a 105 point profit. We may still see a final run up to above 1.37, but I prefer to lock in my profit at this point since the downside risk has increased.  There is good support at 1.3590 and I expect that to hold in the short term. Should price move to above 1.37 I will start looking for a short entry opportunity.

Support: 1.3590 HSpptRsst   1.3515..00 SpptRsst   1.3460 HSppt

Resistance: 1.3653 HSpptRsst   1.3691 H-2-23   1.3787 H-2-17

RSI: Hrly: bullish, broke above decl. TL, Dly: capped by decl. TL resistance, still in bearish territory

Hourly Chart:

Sharp upmove what looks like a final exhaustion run of this move, hitting strong resistance at 1.3690. I went short at this level, with a stop at 1.3760, above strong resistance at 1.3745. Target is 13250.